How Scope estimates, and why it pushes back
No black box. Every range Scope uses is on this page, with the rule behind every piece of pushback. The figures are judgment for one experienced developer, not benchmarks; argue with them.
The unit
Working days for one experienced developer, full time, on a modern web stack, with hosted services where they exist (payments, email, scheduling). Five working days make a week. Never money: day rates vary too much for a price to mean anything, and a price on a free tool is a sales trick.
Three numbers per piece
Each piece has a best case, a likely case and a worst case. A single number hides the only thing worth knowing about an estimate: how wrong it might be. Every plan also carries the work no plan escapes:
- Set-up, design system and deploys: 3, 5 or 8 days.
- Testing, fixes and launch: 3, 5 or 9 days.
The simulation
- Scope builds your v1 4,000 times. In each run, every piece takes a random time from its range, more often near the likely case (a triangular distribution).
- Each run also draws one project factor between 0.9 and 1.7, most often 1.05, that scales every piece together. Real overruns are shared: the same unclear brief or slow feedback slows everything. Without it, adding pieces would make a plan look more certain, which is backwards.
- “Likely” is when half the runs have finished. “Safe to promise” is when 85 in 100 have. The chance of a date is the share of runs finished by then, rounded to 5%: a more precise figure would claim more than anyone knows.
- Weeks are rounded up to the half week, never down.
Every piece has its own random sequence, fixed by its name. Moving one piece out of v1 changes only that piece’s share of each run, so the difference you see is the piece, not noise. The same plan always gives the same numbers, on your screen and in a shared link.
Why cutting helps twice
Cutting a piece removes its likely days, and it removes its spread. Pieces with many unknowns (payouts, chat, integrations, native apps) widen the range far more than they lengthen the middle of it. That is why moving one of them to later can move the odds of a date from unlikely to probable while the likely figure moves by a week or two.
Reading certainty
Certainty comes from the range itself. A range that is narrow, or small in days, is well understood. One that is wide for its size and five or more days wide has many unknowns. The plan draws every piece on one shared scale: the line runs from best to worst case, the dot sits on likely.
- Short and tight: well understood.
- Longer line, dot off-centre: some unknowns.
- Long tail to the right: many unknowns.
Pieces you add yourself are always treated as many unknowns: small (1, 2, 5 days), medium (3, 6, 12) or large (8, 14, 30).
The rules behind the pushback
- If there is a cheaper way to learn the same thing, swap. A payment link answers “will they pay?” as well as a checkout does.
- If a piece only pays off at scale (reviews, discounts, push, a second sign-in method), move it to later until there is scale.
- The product itself is never cut. Scope may suggest a cheaper way to build it.
- Product analytics stays in v1. It costs two days, and without it nobody can say whether v1 worked.
- A piece that needs something no longer in v1 is flagged; Scope’s cut moves it to later too.
- You can keep anything. The brief records that you chose to.
- Pieces in Not doing wear the sealed cut , everywhere they appear.
Every piece
Working days: best, likely, worst. Alternatives are what Scope offers instead.
| Piece | Group | Days | Scope’s view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accounts and passwordsSign up, log in, reset a forgotten password. | Accounts | 3 · 4 · 7 | Swap for sign in by email link (1 · 2 · 3) |
| Sign in with Google or AppleOne-tap sign-in with an account people already have. | Accounts | 1 · 2 · 4 | Later |
| Teams, invites and rolesA business invites colleagues and decides who can do what. | Accounts | 4 · 7 · 12 | Later |
| Public profilesA page per person or business that others can see. | Accounts | 2 · 4 · 7 | — |
| Card payments at checkoutTake a payment through a hosted checkout such as Stripe. | Money | 2 · 4 · 7 | Swap for payment links (0.5 · 1 · 2) |
| Subscriptions and plansMonthly or yearly plans, upgrades, downgrades, invoices, failed cards. | Money | 5 · 8 · 15 | Swap for one plan, hosted billing (2 · 3 · 5) |
| Paying out sellersSplit each payment and send sellers their share automatically. | Money | 8 · 13 · 28 | Swap for weekly payouts by hand (1 · 2 · 3) |
| Cart and checkoutAdd several products, adjust quantities, pay once, get a receipt. | Money | 4 · 6 · 10 | Swap for hosted checkout, custom shop front (2 · 3 · 5) |
| Tax, VAT and invoicesThe right tax per country and a proper invoice per payment. | Money | 3 · 5 · 10 | Swap for tax handled by the provider (0.5 · 1 · 2) |
| Discount codesCodes for a percentage or amount off. | Money | 1 · 2 · 4 | Later |
| The core workflowThe one job your customers sign up for, done well, on its main screens. | Core | 8 · 13 · 22 | — |
| Listings with photosSellers create, edit and pause what they offer, with photos and prices. | Core | 4 · 6 · 10 | — |
| Requests between both sidesA buyer asks, the seller accepts or declines, both see the status. | Core | 5 · 8 · 14 | — |
| Product pagesCategories, product pages with photos, sizes and stock. | Core | 3 · 5 · 8 | — |
| Booking calendarLive availability, booking, rescheduling and cancelling. | Core | 6 · 10 · 18 | Swap for embedded scheduler (1 · 2 · 3) |
| The core workflowThe forms, statuses and records that replace the spreadsheet. | Core | 6 · 10 · 18 | — |
| Posts, comments and repliesMembers post, reply and react, with moderation. | Core | 5 · 8 · 14 | Swap for community on a hosted tool (1 · 2 · 4) |
| Courses and lessonsVideo lessons in order, with progress saved per member. | Core | 5 · 9 · 16 | — |
| Editable pagesYou edit text and images on the site without a developer. | Core | 2 · 3 · 6 | — |
| File and photo uploadsPeople attach documents or photos. | Core | 2 · 3 · 6 | — |
| SearchA search box that finds the right thing, typos included. | Core | 2 · 4 · 8 | Swap for filters and sorting (1 · 2 · 4) |
| Map viewResults on a map, searching by area. | Core | 4 · 7 · 14 | Swap for browse by area (1 · 1.5 · 3) |
| Reviews and ratingsCustomers rate and review after each order or booking. | Core | 3 · 5 · 9 | Later |
| Email notificationsConfirmations, reminders and receipts by email. | Messages | 1 · 2 · 4 | — |
| In-app chatPeople message each other inside the product, with unread counts. | Messages | 6 · 10 · 20 | Swap for contact by email (1 · 1.5 · 3) |
| Push notificationsAlerts on people’s phones. | Messages | 3 · 5 · 9 | Later |
| Text message remindersSMS reminders before appointments or deliveries. | Messages | 2 · 3 · 6 | Later |
| Admin dashboardScreens for your staff to see and fix everything. | Running it | 5 · 8 · 15 | Swap for table editor as admin (1 · 2 · 3) |
| Reports and chartsDashboards of bookings, sales or usage over time. | Running it | 4 · 7 · 14 | Swap for export to a spreadsheet (1 · 1.5 · 3) |
| Import your spreadsheetBring today’s customers and records in on day one. | Running it | 2 · 3 · 6 | — |
| Move data from the old systemCarry every record across from the system you are replacing. | Running it | 4 · 8 · 20 | Swap for import your spreadsheet (2 · 3 · 6) |
| Connect to another systemSync with your CRM, accounting or stock system. | Running it | 4 · 8 · 20 | Swap for no-code bridge (Zapier or Make) (1 · 2 · 3) |
| Product analyticsCounting the steps people take, so you can see where they stop. | Running it | 1 · 2 · 3 | Keep in v1 |
| iPhone and Android appsApps in the App Store and Google Play. | Platform | 20 · 30 · 60 | Swap for installable web app (2 · 4 · 7) |
| Landing pageThe page that explains it and gets people to start. | Platform | 2 · 4 · 7 | — |
| Search-friendly pagesPages Google can read, with good titles and previews. | Platform | 1 · 2 · 4 | — |
| Several languagesEvery screen and email in more than one language. | Platform | 3 · 5 · 10 | Later |
| An AI featureSuggestions, summaries or answers generated by a model. | Platform | 4 · 8 · 20 | Later |
| Live updatesChanges appear on everyone’s screen without refreshing. | Platform | 5 · 9 · 18 | Later |
What Scope does not know
Your team, your existing code, your industry’s rules, how fast decisions get made on your side. All of these move real projects more than any feature list. Treat the plan as the start of a conversation with whoever builds it. Start a plan.